Things to Watch For During the Election

No one is expecting democrats to gain ground. The question is how fall will they fall?

If the GOP can unseat Democratic Rep. Baron Hill in Indiana's always-hard-fought 9th congressional district, for example, that's a good sign for the expected Republican takeover of the House. And if they can capture all three seats they've got an eye on in Indiana, that could well signal a GOP hurricane.

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A few tips on what to watch as the returns roll in Tuesday night (all times are EDT):

HOUSE

Expectations are high that Republicans will pick up at least the 40 seats they need to retake control of the House after four years of Democratic rule. That should start in the Midwest.

In Ohio, where polls close at 7:30 p.m., six Democratic-held seats are in jeopardy. In Pennsylvania and Illinois, where polls close at 8 p.m., 10 more are at risk.

If Midwestern incumbents such Joe Donnelly in Indiana and John Boccieri in Ohio fall, Republicans are probably headed for huge gains nationwide. Measure Democratic resilience if the party manages to hold on to a pair of imperiled Georgia seats, and if Rep. John Spratt can win a new term in South Carolina.

Worth watching in Florida (an 8 p.m. poll close): a rematch between Democratic Rep. Ron Klein and Republican Allen West. A loser two years ago, West rides anti-incumbent sentiment and is easily outspending his opponent.

SENATE

It would take a true blowout for Republicans to pick up the 10 Senate seats they need for control. The first should be an easy one, in Indiana. But if Paul can't keep Kentucky in the GOP column, it would be a sign of strength for Democrats and a symbolic setback for the tea party activist.


Republicans should have an easy time holding onto one of their own vacant seats in Ohio, where former Republican Rep. Rob Portman is favored. But keep an eye on West Virginia, another 7:30 poll close state, where Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin and Republican millionaire industrialist John Raese are tussling over the seat long held by the late Democrat Robert Byrd. A Republican victory there could keep alive GOP hopes of a majority.

Three-term Sen. Blanche Lincoln could be the first Senate Democratic incumbent to fall, when polls close in Arkansas at 8:30 p.m.

Polls close at 10 p.m. in the most closely watched race of the night: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's battle in Nevada against tea party favorite Sharron Angle.

Even if Republicans show huge strength, the nation still could go to sleep Tuesday night with unanswered questions about the makeup of the Senate: Polls don't close until 1 a.m. in Alaska, where it could take days or weeks to determine the winner of a three-way race for Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski's seat.

How long could the suspense drag on?

In 2006, it took until 8:30 p.m. the day after the election to determine that Democrats had taken control of the Senate from Republicans. And in 2008, it was nearly eight months after Election Day before it was determined that Democrat Al Franken had won Minnesota's Senate race, giving Democrats control of their 60th seat in the Senate, exactly the number needed to overcome a Republican filibuster.